The tractor industry will face a major reshuffle in 2023

The famous saying of the famous business cycle research expert Jugra: The only reason for depression is prosperity!

Under the special background of 2022, the irrational prosperity of the domestic tractor industry will inevitably lead to serious overdraft of market demand. In 2023, the tractor industry will really usher in a reshuffle, which is a multi-dimensional and cross reshuffle of policy, technology, capital.

For a long time, the domestic tractor industry has been looking forward to this reshuffle, and at the same time, it is afraid of the coming of this day, but what should come will always come. After the reshuffle, the domestic tractor industry will usher in a real rebirth. Only those enterprises that survive this baptism are qualified to talk about the future.

1. Policy shuffle

Under normal circumstances, the force leading the industry should be technology and business model, so the tools for industry reshuffle should also be technology and business model. However, the decisive force of the domestic agricultural machinery industry has shifted from the market to the policy, so the force leading the domestic tractor industry reshuffle has become the visible hand of the policy.

The biggest impact on the tractor industry in 2023 is the power of two policies, which are superimposed: the first is the national four emission policy, which is clear to all that the biggest change of the national four tractors is the increase in terminal retail prices caused by the increase in costs, which is a further blow to the tractor industry in the saturation period of demand, so it is the most important factor affecting the tractor industry in 2023.

Second, the subsidy policy began to have a tendency. We all know that for a long time, the domestic agricultural machinery subsidy policy has the characteristics of quasi "inclusive". No matter the farmers who buy machinery or the production enterprises, they are treated equally. There is almost no threshold for tractor production enterprises to enter. All these are likely to change in 2023, because the agricultural machinery purchase subsidy policy introduces the precondition of factory audit.

In order to better implement the "Opinions of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council on Doing a Good Job in the Key Work of Comprehensively Promoting Rural Revitalization by 2022" on the decision-making and deployment of "optimizing machinery and optimizing subsidies" for agricultural machinery products, and promote the implementation of the "Opinions of the State Council on Strengthening the Construction of Quality Certification System to Promote Total Quality Management" on "giving play to the role of voluntary certification as a" high line " The Agricultural Mechanization General Station of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs actively promoted the introduction of the work plan for the voluntary product certification and factory review of 200-220 horsepower wheeled tractors, and first entrusted Dongfang Kemu Quality Certification Company to carry out the relevant certification and factory review. To this end, Dongfang Kemu, the certification agency under the Agricultural Mechanization Station of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, conducted a factory audit on Weichai Lovol Heavy Industry Co., Ltd. from July 20 to 22.

It is said that the brands that have passed the factory audit receive more subsidies than the brands that have not been audited. They will be piloted at the local level first, and then promoted to the whole country when they are mature. The first positive response is Shandong Province.

The newly released Announcement on the List of Subsidies for Agricultural Machinery Purchase in Shandong Province for Some "National IV" Emission Standards issued by Shandong Province shows that the wheeled tractors with power of more than 200 horsepower passing the factory condition audit certification are 4370 yuan more than those without certification, including 2410 yuan more for power shift.

This policy conveys an obvious signal that the era of relying on strength has arrived, and the policy will help the tractor industry to reshuffle, and opportunists and those fishing in troubled waters will exit.

2. Technical shuffle

In the business world, technology is the way to get rid of competitors once and for all. If the technology can be in an absolute leading position, the enterprise will be in a relatively advantageous niche.

In the last round of competition, the competition was about opportunities, the ability to use subsidy policies, and the ability to control costs. However, with the optimization of policies, the reduction of opportunities, and the compression of cost space, the cost advantage of small enterprises will soon disappear, and the domestic tractor industry will usher in a technology shuffle and a technology era.

Several technical means in 2023:

First, the emission standards were upgraded. Everyone knows this, but this policy is beneficial to large enterprises and unfavorable to small enterprises.

The second is the upgrading of transmission technology. In 2023, with the help of national three to national four, leading domestic enterprises such as Yituo Dongfanghong and Weichai Lovol will vigorously promote tractors with new transmission technology. It is expected that tractors equipped with PowerShuttle, power shift and CVT continuously variable transmission system will be truly mass produced and rapidly improved in supply. The replacement of manual gear with automatic gear will be completed quickly, and a large number of small enterprises and brands without technical reserves and new product development ability will exit, The shuffle of technology is "dimension reduction strike". Use high dimensions to fight low dimensions. Low dimensions have no power to fight back.

The third is to promote the technical upgrading of the whole tractor by means of informatization. With automatic control, assisted driving, driverless driving combined with power shift and CVT continuously variable transmission technology, tractors are no longer a competition of hardware, but a competition of information technology, software control system and intelligent technology. This is the ability of system engineering and systematization, not the three to five personal carpet production mode of small enterprises. This is a higher dimension technology shuffle, Only the leading enterprises with strong strength and enterprises mastering intelligent technology can complete it. Such enterprises are very likely to be cross-border high-tech enterprises such as Fengjiang Intelligent.

Therefore, in 2023, it is not only the national four level upgrading that is simple, but also the application of drive train, information technology and intelligent technology that will be synchronized with the national four level technology upgrading. These three technologies will be a gateway for small enterprises.

3. Capital shuffle

After the opportunity competition, product competition, channel competition and brand competition, the domestic agricultural machinery industry will usher in a real strength competition stage as the industry becomes more and more mature.

In the face of strong strength, the previously tried and true marketing tips and careful thinking on channels will become worthless. The hard to beat competition is a battle of the battlefield.

Once the tractor industry enters the battlefield, the test is the comprehensive strength of the enterprise, such as production capacity, technology, service, management, team, brand and other comprehensive capabilities, as well as the most important capital strength.

At present, the top three companies in the domestic tractor industry: Yituo Dongfanghong, Weichai Lovol and Changzhou Dongfeng are not single enterprises, and they all have strong parent companies after the three companies.

The group company of YTO Group is the state-owned machinery group, the backbone of central enterprises, and one of the world's top 500; The group company of Weichai Lovol is Weichai Co., Ltd., the largest power product manufacturer in China, and will rank first in global production and sales in 2022; Behind Changzhou Dongfeng is a strong Donghua chain, ranking second in the global chain industry and first in Asia.

In addition to the capital power behind it, the domestic tractor industry is also vying for control of the capital highland. Yituo shares are listed in both A shares and H shares. The agricultural machinery industry is unique. Weichai Lovol is planning to be separated from Weichai shares for separate listing. It has been operating for a long time. With its strong strength and excellent performance, it is believed that the IPO can be successfully achieved within two years. Changzhou Dongfeng can meet the conditions for IPO, but the company probably won't go this way. Another noteworthy thing is the listing of Ward, The probability rate of Ward Agricultural Machinery, which has sprinted for several IPOs in a row, can also be successfully listed. In addition, several powerful groups are also preparing to go to the capital market.

After the listing of Weichai Lovol and Wode agricultural machinery, together with the previous Yituo Shares, Xingguang Agricultural Machinery, Xinyan Shares, Jifeng Agricultural Machinery, etc., the domestic agricultural machinery industry will really have a cluster of listed companies with agricultural machinery as the theme, and it is very likely that the capital force will promote the progress of the industry at that time.

Conclusion: The tractor industry will usher in a new period of development in 2023. Three major forces: policy shuffle, technology shuffle, and capital shuffle will be applied to the tractor industry in a multi-dimensional and cross cutting manner. The industry will usher in a long-awaited era of integration. The industry will be able to withstand the test of the times and turn fish into dragons.