Views: 2 Author: Site Editor Publish Time: 2023-03-21 Origin: Site
The switch of the fourth national product marks the stage of the agricultural machinery industry moving towards mid to high-end products, and high-quality products continue to lead and promote the pace of industry development. In 2023, the agricultural machinery market will become the most anticipated year, presenting a competitive situation of phased market adjustment, industry restructuring, and complex and volatile user needs.
1、 Judgment on the overall market situation in 2023
Since December 1, 2022, agricultural machinery enterprises have striven to promote the switching and listing of the fourth national product, utilizing the time before the sales off-season to conduct market layout in advance and complete the batch launch of products. Most agricultural machinery enterprises have gradually increased their efforts in product promotion and promotion, striving to gain the first mover advantage in the sales of the fourth national product.
Based on comprehensive judgment, there are some phenomena and rules to follow in the market changes this year. In 2023, the agricultural machinery market will exhibit an L-shaped adjustment trend in the first half and a V-shaped reversal trend in the second half. The market will exhibit a flat coal type trend throughout the year, and the overall market will continue to undergo phased and deep adjustments. According to product types, annual demand for some products that are heavily overdrawn, such as large and medium-sized tractors and wheat harvesters, cannot be ruled out by a decrease of about 40%. From the perspective of regional demand, regions and products with large initial holdings, high mechanization rates of cultivation and harvest, severe market overdrafts, and low subsidy ratios will experience a sharp decrease in incremental demand and a weakening in stock renewal in the short term. From the perspective of enterprise market share, the market share of CR3 products such as large and medium-sized tractors, crawler harvesters, and wheat harvesters will continue to increase, and the market concentration will further increase. The product competitive advantages of leading and advantageous enterprises will become more prominent. The actual sales market share of leading enterprises in large and medium-sized tractors and corn harvests will exceed 30% for the first time.
From the perspective of phased demand characteristics, the traditional peak line of the sales peak season and peak month cycle will be flattened and delayed, and the market wave line will fluctuate in an irregular zigzag shape. It is estimated that the traditional peak season demand in the spring market will be delayed by about 20 days, and the peak season demand in the autumn market will be advanced by about 10 days. The wheat machine market is mainly concentrated in the first half of the year, and this year's peak monthly sales are expected to reach about 25% of the annual sales, with a year-on-year decrease of about 5%. The corn harvest market is mainly concentrated in the second half of the year, and this year's peak monthly sales are expected to reach around 25% of the annual sales, basically unchanged year-on-year. In the first and second half of this year, the demand proportion of the large and medium-sized trailer market was about 55% and 45%. The peak monthly sales volume of the previous and next years is expected to show a certain degree of backward negative growth year-on-year.
2、 The superposition of comprehensive factors drives the market stage to shake to the bottom
From the perspective of practical factors, the listing of the fourth national product still faces constraints from various aspects such as user wait and see, quality improvement, operation approval, and service assurance, as well as objective development challenges such as chronological bottoming, periodic shocks, and break-through growth.
The impact of previous overdrafts. Due to the impact of epidemic factors in the early stage, some farmers chose to work in agriculture, and some purchased agricultural machinery products. This year, the overall situation of epidemic prevention and control across the country is improving, and the "Class B and Class B management" normalization prevention and control phase has steadily entered. Farmers who originally went home to work have begun to choose to work outside, reducing or delaying the corresponding demand for machine purchases. According to incomplete statistics, in 2022, about 40% of potential rigid users and about 50% of professional agricultural machinery users purchased State III products in advance due to concerns about factors such as price hikes and lower subsidies for State IV products, overdrawing normal market demand this year. In previous years, some enterprises have carried out strong promotional activities when migrant workers return to their hometown for the New Year. Due to potential customers who have already overdrawn in advance, and the decrease in migrant workers who have gone abroad, the promotional activities around the Spring Festival this year have basically failed to achieve the expected results.
The spread of wait-and-see factors. Currently, there are still a large number of users who are not familiar with the functions and performance of the fourth national product, and lack basic use and maintenance skills. Due to the impact of some adverse factors in the previous upgrade process of country 2 and country 3 products, existing intended customers have the idea of waiting and taking a look, and have decided to check the use effects of other users first, delaying the purchase time. In some regions, the weather is relatively warm this year, and the probability of adverse weather conditions such as late spring cold is relatively low. When the stock of products can meet the local demand for mechanized operations, there is rarely a phenomenon of centralized purchase in advance. This year's Spring Festival is more than 20 days earlier than last year, and according to traditional customs, it should start earlier than last year. Due to existing potential users delaying the purchase time, it is expected that the sales curve will narrow and the trend will be delayed in the spring market based on the actual situation.
Product quality constraints. Some enterprises were previously affected by factors such as the epidemic situation and their own strength, and the validation time for the fourth national performance test, high temperature and humidity plateau test, machine and aftertreatment reliability test, and field experimental test was adjusted and shifted back. Some enterprises have shortened the test cycle and time in order to catch up with the time to market, and whether the quality of these products can meet the requirements requires continuous testing by farmland operations. From the product launch, it can be seen that most of the waist and tail enterprises' national fourth product models have passed the filing review, which is several or dozens of times or even several times different from the top enterprises' national fourth product models. Due to resource constraints in product research and development, manufacturing, and verification, it is difficult to add models and insufficient inventory models. Some enterprises have weak access to core components and have not formed a solid cooperative relationship with leading supply chain enterprises. In the short term, there is still significant room for improvement in product manufacturing capabilities and quality assurance levels, making it difficult to restore their original market competitiveness.
The impact of comprehensive costs. Compared to standard country 3 products, users have increased the cost of purchasing, using, and maintaining products. Due to the general increase in manufacturing costs of most of the country's fourth products between 10% and 20%, and the continued decline in subsidies for the purchase and application of agricultural machinery for individual categories of products, the proportion of user purchases of the country's fourth products after their launch is generally higher by more than two digits than that of the country's third category. The fourth national product has added devices such as tail gas aftertreatment systems and on-board diagnostic systems, which will increase the maintenance costs of users in the event of product failures. The fourth national product requires the addition of CJ-4 grade engine oil, high specification diesel oil, and vehicle urea, which increases the use cost of users. Due to the saturation of regional vehicles and the reduction of operating income, coupled with the relatively low operating costs of the second and third country products, the relatively reduced profitability of the fourth country products has extended the overall cost recovery time.
3、 Multi-dimensional focused power ironing supply curve
In the face of market phased adjustments brought about by industrial upgrading, agricultural machinery enterprises should firmly establish strategic determination and development patience. Actively address short-term challenges faced by enterprises, focus on addressing symptoms and root causes, and short-term and long-term collaborative relationships to achieve synergy in quality improvement, service improvement, and model innovation.
Comprehensively improve the manufacturing capacity of high-quality products. Once products are used in batches, the quality of products among enterprises is high. This requires relevant enterprises to take advantage of product upgrading opportunities to fully implement the optimization and upgrading of manufacturing resources.
First, focusing on manufacturing capacity pain points, implement major short board manufacturing equipment special projects, increase investment in intelligent factories and digital workshops, and quickly form manufacturing systems dominated by automated assembly systems and processing centers. Strive to have equipment resources such as automatic and flexible production lines, intelligent control systems, CNC machining centers, and modern coating production lines, and improve the competitiveness of the fourth national product with high-quality, flexible and intelligent manufacturing technology and quality process assurance capabilities.
The second is to improve process quality control, achieve 100% monitoring of key quality parameters, and 100% error prevention for key processes. Practically go deep into the field, do a good job in the validation of series products, especially in high-temperature and humid plateau areas, user validation, and learn from the successful experience of mature enterprises to further optimize and improve their own products to form their own competitive selling points.
The third is to break through supply constraints, bottlenecks, and vulnerabilities, establish a diverse, autonomous, controllable, high-quality supply chain supply platform, enhance the competitiveness and safety of the industrial chain supply chain, and meet the needs of the fourth national product series manufacturing.
Continue to build an agile service platform. After the launch of the fourth national product and extensive operation, it is not ruled out that it will face heavy service demands. Any enterprise needs to play its role in supporting sales, ensuring maintenance, establishing a competitive model dominated by product service systems, and reconstructing and creating an efficient and agile service operation system.
First, establish and improve service systems and processes, support the efficient integration and smooth operation of enterprise services, dealer services, and social service systems, and conduct process evaluation to form a management closed-loop. Smooth service information, make information transparent, perceptible, and schedulable, reduce process based information silos and blind spots, and ensure that product failure status and user needs can be grasped in the first time. The green service channel dynamically responds to users' maintenance wishes. Implement service commitments and ensure smooth service. Establish a service early warning mechanism, develop relevant service plans, properly allocate service resources across regions, and resolve various unpredictable service challenges.
The second is to revitalize service resources and capabilities. Measure and reserve sufficient service accessories around sales targets. Utilize social and corporate resources to establish sufficient common and vulnerable parts and accessories for the fourth national product, and solve the traditional problem of untimely supply of spare parts during the peak service season in advance. Improve the trinity service network of resident service stations, mobile service vehicles, and operational turnover vehicles in advance, complete the full coverage of fixed area and cross area operational users, ensure that vehicle users who are difficult to maintain in the short term can use the service turnover vehicles in a timely manner, and minimize user operating income.
Third, comprehensively strengthen service training and promotion. Compile, distribute and analyze common and difficult maintenance cases of the fourth national product, carry out multi-level service personnel training, and comprehensively improve the skills of service personnel. Focus on multi-dimensional product training for potential and intended customers, user test drives, on-site explanations for field operations, and other activities. Carry out "companion" vehicle guidance to improve user driving and maintenance skills, and help customers overcome the unfamiliar period of insufficient cognition.
Strive to build a panoramic marketing system. The first competition for product launch is marketing capabilities. Only by continuously promoting the optimization and innovation of enterprise resources, operational capabilities, and marketing models, focusing on the spring market, and grasping the market demand of single season planting areas and spring operation areas, can it be possible to effectively achieve a good start with the enterprise's own market competitiveness and marketing power.
One is multi-dimensional collaboration of enterprise resources. Smooth value chain value transmission, take the market as the leading factor, and form an operating mechanism with cross links and mutual promotion such as research and development, procurement, manufacturing, marketing, customer relations, and product improvement. Respect the talents and treatment of all aspects of the marketing chain, especially expert talents, strengthen the construction and control of a comprehensive marketing system, and continuously accumulate product sales advantages.
The second is to improve the ability from multiple perspectives. Benchmarking leading enterprises, through the introduction and integration of industry advanced marketing models and high-end marketing talents, continuously improve their own capabilities. Innovative marketing chain construction, focus on marketing management innovation, promote digital management and information empowerment of marketing business, and continuously revitalize marketing resources. Utilize digital intelligence technology to achieve synchronous development online and offline, and provide a complete set of agricultural equipment demand solutions for end users.
The third is the promotion of multiple sales models. Promote a high degree of collaboration between online and offline marketing, accelerate the optimization and layout of global marketing chains, and comprehensively improve the level of enterprise marketing. Carry out new business models such as refined promotion, precision marketing, and online support services, change the traditional template and business based offline promotion and promotion, and lock in customer intentions and needs ahead of competitors. Actively carry out short videos, live broadcasts, and other promotional activities to promote corporate products, conduct comprehensive promotions, and maintain product maintenance skills, continuously increasing customer stickiness and increasing product sales share.
Survival of the fittest in the market is an unchanging iron law, and opportunities for industrial upgrading are destined to be left to powerful enterprises. Products that meet user satisfaction only have a foundation for development, and the competitive advantage of products that fail to meet the requirements will continue to shrink. This requires enterprises committed to development to adhere to management within the factory, integrate resources within and outside the industry, accelerate breakthroughs in weak areas of development, and provide differentiated high-quality products with high cost performance; Take the opportunity of strengthening customer relationship building externally, use online and offline platforms to increase brand building, product, and after-sales assurance image promotion, lock in and attract intended customers in advance, and strive to achieve the enterprise's market development goals.
