Views: 2 Author: PEAK Publish Time: 2023-03-20 Origin: Qingxianlaonong
As the first year after the end of the COVID-19 epidemic, the economic development trend in 2023 is of great concern. Compared to other industries, the agricultural machinery industry has more distinctive personality characteristics. Especially since entering the transformation and upgrading stage, the industrial structure has shifted, market growth has slowed, and the competitive landscape has been reshaped, showing a subversive development pattern year by year.
After three years of epidemic impact, how will the agricultural machinery market unfold in 2023? This issue has attracted the expectant attention of all agricultural machinery workers.
01
Will retaliatory consumption come after the epidemic?
According to economic theory, the root of social and economic development is consumption, consumption, or consumption. In the past three years of the pandemic, many uncertain factors have seriously affected everyone's expectations for the future, and the safety index and consumption willingness have plummeted.
We often say that Chinese people have the habit of saving. The older generation has experienced a period of ups and downs, so they have to constantly save food for the winter; In the past few years, the economy was in flames, and not only did everyone not save money, but they were also saddled with decades of loans; After the outbreak began, everyone lost their sense of security and began to save money crazily. This shows that saving money is a strategy for the uncertainty of the future.
Now that the epidemic has passed, has everyone's confidence restored? Will retaliatory consumption really come? Each industry has its own characteristics, especially the real economy, which is not as easy to turn around as the catering and tourism industries. We must take a rational view. As we all know, agricultural machinery serves agriculture, and the development of modern agriculture and ensuring food security cannot be separated from the assistance of mechanization. The state has provided consistent support from the policy level, with a broad prospect. After three years of the epidemic, the agricultural machinery industry has steadily advanced. Although consumption has contracted, growth has slowed, and profits have declined, it is not an exceptionally bad industry, because people must eat, and they need food to eat, and they must cultivate land for food, Mechanization is indispensable for farming.
Overall, in recent years, the main tone of quality growth in the agricultural machinery industry has remained unchanged, new and old industries have been constantly evolving, and user consumption has weakened under the impact of the epidemic. However, there is significant competition in the inventory of traditional agricultural machinery products, and new category products are still in a rapid cultivation period. Market demand echelon updates have taken a large share, and it is still time for the industry to explode and grow.
It can be predicted that the agricultural machinery market will improve slightly in 2023 compared to previous years, but there is little chance of retaliatory consumption and market inflation.
02
Will low speed operation continue?
In response to this question, it is estimated that everyone will easily reach an agreement, and the answer is definitely yes! From the perspective of industrial development, the agricultural machinery industry is still in the industrial adjustment zone, with traditional product stock competition entering a low speed normal, and emerging product demand meeting entering a rapid growth. However, the volume gap between the two determines the "empty window" shape of industrial development, which is a process that lasts several years, more than a decade, or even longer. The agricultural machinery industry will continue to maintain a quality growth trend, As we often say, "speed has decreased and quality has improved." The competitiveness of the domestic agricultural machinery industry continues to accumulate and improve. Low speed, high efficiency, and stability are still the norm for industry development in recent years.
At this stage, the tasks faced by agricultural machinery workers are even more arduous, with increased research and development, and endless exploration and innovation. According to statistics, China's investment in core, high-tech, and basic research and development accounts for only 5% of the total research and development costs, far lower than 20% in developed countries. It is not uncommon for people to get stuck in the neck. There are many barriers in the core technology fields of China's agricultural machinery industry, such as suspension chassis technology, CVT continuously variable transmission system, and silage kneading technology. At the same time, many core components such as power shift transmission systems The seed clips of no-tillage precision seeders are heavily dependent on imports, and there is a huge gap in the localization of high-end CNC machine tools and equipment intelligent operating systems for mechanical processing.
Therefore, in the transformation and upgrading stage of the agricultural machinery industry, we not only need to digest the problem of low-end overcapacity caused by the rapid growth stage, but also need to achieve the goals of satisfying the supply in high-end fields, breaking foreign monopolies in top technology and processes, and innovating and developing blank agricultural machinery products. We need to focus on technological innovation, pursue quality growth, and catch up with the world's first-class level. We are still on the way, and there is still a long way to go to upgrade the industry, with a steady pace of progress Slowing down is also inevitable.
03
What are the biggest variables in the post epidemic market?
If the biggest variable that has affected the operation of the agricultural machinery market in the past three years is "repeated outbreaks", then the biggest variable that will affect the market in 2023 and beyond will be "food prices and user benefits.".
As mentioned earlier, the key to economic progress and development is consumption. In the post epidemic era, the recovery of consumer confidence cannot be achieved overnight, but is a continuous and natural process of recovery. Some people say that consumer confidence is similar to human confidence, and may experience some bad things that slowly blow it down, making it very inferiority complex. But if you stop hitting and continue to accumulate small successes, confidence will return.
In other words, from now on, there is really no particularly good way to restore everyone's confidence in a short time, but with a little time, everyone gradually forgets those uncertain days, when it comes to doing business, when it comes to spending, it gradually recovers.
For the agricultural machinery industry, "user income" is the primary factor that can stimulate consumption, and "grain price" is directly related to "user income". Of course, this "grain" is a broad term that refers to various types of grains, meat, poultry, eggs, and milk.
The decisive role of these two variables is not difficult to understand. It is that when people have money in their hands, they can achieve consumption. When food prices are high, they can make money in agriculture, and only when farmers make money can they buy agricultural machinery.
In the future, the general tone of the country's policy support for agriculture and agricultural machinery will not change. There is great potential for the development of the industry, and it is worth our continuous efforts.
04
Do you still earn money doing agricultural machinery?
When it comes to the profitability of the agricultural machinery industry, it is necessary to turn back the time and review the development process. The real completion of industrial accumulation in the development of domestic agricultural machinery was between the liberation and before 2004. The driving factor for the industry's development to truly enter the fast lane was the implementation of the national agricultural machinery purchase subsidy policy in 2004, during which the following 10 years were often referred to as the "Golden Decade", The industry's annual industrial income increased from 84.1 billion yuan in 2004 to 309.2 billion yuan in 2012. It only took eight years for the industry to grow to the world's first place in scale. In those years, the annual growth rate of scale has been maintained in double digits, and the overall profit level is also in the first and second positions in the 13 mechanical industries. This stage has attracted many enterprises to scramble to enter, and the domestic agricultural machinery industry has grown almost crazily and brutally.
Since 2014, with the deepening of the supply-side reform of the agricultural planting structure, the development of the agricultural machinery industry has shifted from scale growth to quality growth, entering a new stage of development. In recent years, the operating speed of the industry market has slowed significantly, and the annual growth rate of the industry scale has fallen into a single digit growth range. The profit level has fallen year by year, and even experienced negative growth in 2018.
After that, when the epidemic period entered, the industry's development was significantly hindered, and the industrial growth rate became more stable. Not only that, the market reshuffle accelerated, and the operating efficiency of enterprises became polarized: good, better; Poor, even worse.
For example, large and medium-sized towing enterprises and harvester enterprises have further improved their brand concentration, leading to growth in revenue for first-tier brands, while non mainstream brands have entered the downward channel and even been eliminated.
For example, in recent years, livestock machinery enterprises, cash crop machinery enterprises, intelligent technology enterprises, etc., which have flourished, have shown a good momentum of development. Whether you make money by making agricultural machinery depends on how you do it.
05
What are the highlights of the National Agricultural Machinery Exhibition?
As the preferred platform for enterprise publicity and product display, exhibitions have always been an indispensable part of the development of the agricultural machinery industry. Over the years, the national international agricultural machinery exhibitions held twice a year, together with large and small characteristic exhibitions in various provinces, cities, and districts, have played a good role in promoting the development of the industry.
In the past three years, due to the epidemic, various agricultural machinery exhibitions had to be suspended, and 2022 was no exception. The "Spring Exhibition" and "Autumn Exhibition", which were highly regarded, were successively suspended, leaving countless regrets.
In 2023, with the end of the epidemic, agricultural machinery exhibitions known as "wind vanes" of market movements and various forms have been put on the agenda. Through the exhibitions, it is possible to observe the business trends of agricultural machinery enterprises, as well as understand the purchase level of users. There are many highlights. First, when looking at products, whether traditional or emerging products, various enterprises will conduct centralized display and promotion at the exhibition, resulting in an endless stream of technological innovation, A wide variety of exciting; Secondly, depending on the direction of the wind, whether it is a national exhibition or a local featured exhibition, corresponding forums, exchanges, demonstrations, and other activities will be organized. Through these activities, we can better understand the development trend of the industry; Third, looking at the market, every exhibition will have users from all over the world present, using the opportunity for everyone to meet, communicate, and better achieve market judgment; Fourth, it is easy to discover hot products and understand the needs of users in the exhibition based on demand, which is something that industry insiders will do; Fifth, it is normal to see friends and use exhibitions to bring agricultural machinery people from all over the world together to reminisce, chat, and seek cooperation.
06
Where is the path for traditional agricultural machinery?
Upgrade and innovation, this is the only way out! In recent years, traditional products such as large and medium-sized tractors, grain combine harvesters, and rice transplanters have increasingly reflected the competitive characteristics of stock based on demand upgrading and upgrading. Currently, the comprehensive mechanization degree of the three main grain crops, namely corn, wheat, and rice, has exceeded 85%, and mechanization has been basically achieved. Oversupply of traditional agricultural machinery products for field crops is common, and competition in similar industries is becoming increasingly intense. We must recognize that, The entire elements of the agricultural machinery industry are constantly undergoing disruptive changes along with the development of the industry. However, the core essence in the process of industry and enterprise change is constant, which is to consistently serve and meet customer needs through product upgrading and innovation.
Therefore, whether engaged in traditional agricultural machinery or emerging niche agricultural machinery, it is necessary to grasp the direction of user demand. First, it is necessary to shift from meeting popular needs to personalized ones. With the stock update needs of traditional agricultural machinery, personalized agricultural machinery customization and mechanization shortcomings in different agricultural techniques and regions will represent the direction of user demand; Second, strive for excellence to ensure product quality and operational reliability. If the product does not pass the standard, no matter how low the price, it cannot win the recognition of users. The product is always the primary decisive factor for users to repeatedly measure their purchasing needs, while other factors exist as supplements; Third, in terms of large-scale production, more attention has been paid to product intelligence, comfort, multi-function, and industrial design such as appearance and craftsmanship. The demand for large-scale agricultural machinery has increased among younger user groups, as well as among cooperative and large agricultural machinery users. At the same time, the attention paid to factors such as intelligent operation, riding comfort, and functional complexity has gradually increased. After the 1990s and even after the 2000s, the appearance design, color The degree of electronization and other factors have given a focused attention. Therefore, if traditional agricultural machinery products want to "go out of the market", they must combine user needs and strive to create a "unique" product.
07
What are the hot spots in the agricultural machinery market?
Trends, i.e. hot spots; Demand is the hot spot. After all, agricultural machinery always serves agricultural production. No matter what period, it is necessary to keep up with the pace of agricultural development, provide suitable and applicable products, and better assist agricultural progress.
At present and in the future, the agricultural machinery industry needs to solve problems at two levels: first, to solve the problem of comprehensive mechanization; The second is to solve the problem of whole-process mechanization. The way to solve these two problems is to eliminate the "pain points" of two industries through innovation. First, eliminate the "pain points" of inorganic availability; The second is to eliminate "pain points where there is no good opportunity available".
According to the current operating status of the agricultural machinery market, it is not difficult to predict that the agricultural machinery industry in the transition period will focus more on the development of industrial quality, such as cracking core technical barriers and complementing industry weaknesses; Innovative product manufacturing to meet the diverse needs of users; Optimize resource allocation and enhance core competitiveness
We all know that the mechanization of traditional field crops such as wheat, corn, and rice is basically satisfied. However, the comprehensive mechanization degree of facility agriculture and primary processing of agricultural products is only 39%, the comprehensive mechanization degree of animal husbandry and breeding is less than 37%, and the comprehensive mechanization degree of tea production is only 28%... The degree of mechanization is seriously insufficient. Moreover, there is a gap in the supply of machinery in many small agricultural categories across the country, which needs to be further improved.
In 2023, it is expected that green fodder harvesters, balers, feed processing machinery, feeding machinery, livestock and poultry feeding management machinery and other agricultural machinery products related to the livestock industry will be produced; Scallion, ginger, garlic harvesting machinery, yam harvesting machinery, aquaculture equipment, as well as various small and characteristic agricultural machinery products suitable for use in hilly and mountainous areas, and other small and medium-sized agricultural machinery products that users just need; High-end domestic products with high cost performance, such as domestic large-scale animal husbandry machinery and large-scale tillage and land preparation machinery; Scientific and technological innovation agricultural machinery products such as remote control cruise system, plant protection drone, unmanned driving, crop planting environment monitoring and monitoring equipment; Energy conservation and environmental protection related products such as facility agricultural equipment, biomass energy and waste treatment equipment, straw fertilizer equipment, drip irrigation equipment, and other modern agriculture related products remain hot spots and concerns in the market.
08
How to view the listing tide of agricultural machinery enterprises?
If we rewind the time to 5 or 6 years ago, the listing of agricultural machinery enterprises was not as hot as it is now. Nowadays, especially in the past two or three years, it is common to hear that agricultural machinery enterprises plan to impact the listing.
As we all know, the listing of enterprises is a double-edged sword, which can be used well to help enterprises achieve leapfrog growth with the help of capital strength; If not used properly, it can backfire and even accelerate the decline of the enterprise.
Different enterprises have their own strategic plans for development, and outsiders cannot make unusually accurate judgments about whether a company should go public. However, there are three points that must be paid attention to. First, listing should be used as a means of assistance, not as a goal, and blindly pursuing utilitarian goals in the market may lead to problems sooner or later; Second, it is necessary to select the right track for scientific and technological innovation, with continuous innovation capabilities and rising strategic planning. Unlike other industries, the agricultural machinery industry is closely related to the cause of "agriculture, rural areas, and farmers", and is also a relatively traditional industrial industry. The more traditional industries are, the more they need to be supported by scientific and technological innovation. Without the strength of innovation, they will not have the momentum for development, and they will not have the ability to further improve their business performance after listing; Third, agricultural machinery enterprises that have not achieved standardized management and operation cannot be blindly listed. As is well known, the agricultural machinery industry has always been characterized by "scattered, chaotic, poor, and small" characteristics, especially small and medium-sized private enterprises, which occupy an absolute share. Most private enterprises have always continued the family style and person to person management approach, and many business operators lack standardized management concepts, professional talents, team building Shortcomings such as process management are common, and the listing of such enterprises still requires careful consideration.
09
Is there a future for agricultural machinery physical stores?
Competition in the agricultural machinery market has always been said to be "the king of channels", and until now it has not been overemphasized. Agricultural machinery manufacturing and circulation have always been inseparable. Before the outbreak of mobile internet smart applications, agricultural machinery physical stores were the only choice for agricultural machinery sales and services.
In recent years, with the comprehensive popularization of the Internet, people's awareness of activities has been subverted, and the business model of the agricultural machinery industry has also been changed. Agricultural machinery marketing channels have become increasingly rich, while physical stores are facing
